Today’s Narrative - 💤Neutral💤

Macros

• Market Indecision continues as the market struggles to establish a clear direction, with no major catalysts dominating trading sentiment beyond isolated events.

• PPI Exceeds Expectations as the US PPI for January rose 3.5% YoY (vs 3.2% expected), slightly exceeding market expectations but not triggering significant market volatility.

• Rate Cut Bets Diminish with only a 2.5% probability now priced in for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.

• $SPX 500 Weakness observed as only 45% of S&P 500 ($SPX) stocks are trading above their 100-day moving average, indicating potential broader market fragility.

• $META Green Streak continues with Meta Platforms Inc ($META) now trading green for 19 consecutive days, marking a historic winning streak for a Magnificent 7 stock.

• 111-D MA Watch for $BTC as historically, Bitcoin ($BTC) dips below its 111-day moving average (currently at $93,400) have preceded major price movements, suggesting a potential inflection point.

Cryptos

• Retail Mania Evident as Coinbase ($COIN) Q4 earnings smash expectations driven by retail trading volume outpacing institutional by 35x, highlighting strong retail participation.

• Robinhood ($HOOD) Earnings Echo Coinbase's retail-driven revenue surge, further confirming significant retail investor engagement in the current crypto market.

• OpenSea ($SEA) Token Launch Imminent as OpenSea announces its native token $SEA, with farming opportunities via XP and boxes, though no official launch date is yet confirmed.

• Arc ($AO) Launch Struggles as Arweave ($AR) ecosystem project Arc DAO ($AO)'s initial agent launch faces negative funding and price decline, highlighting challenges despite strong tech. A potential $AO Dip Buying Opportunity presents itself for those familiar with Arweave ($AR) and Arc ($AO) tech.

• $RUNE Fundamentals Solid for Thorchain ($RUNE) but lingering trust issues persist, making it a high-risk, high-reward play.

• $ENA Un-organic Price Action for Ethena ($ENA) raises caution, requiring careful assessment of risk/reward.

• DeBridge ($DEB) Valuation Cheap despite great tech, but significant token unlocks in April for DeBridge ($DEB) present a supply overhang risk.

• GameStop ($GME) Bitcoin Consideration reported as GameStop ($GME) explores potential Bitcoin ($BTC) investment, signaling possible corporate treasury diversification into crypto.

• Texas Bitcoin Reserve Bill set for hearing on February 18th, potentially paving the way for Texas to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

• North Carolina Bitcoin Bill proposes a potential $2.6 billion Bitcoin ($BTC) investment if passed, highlighting growing state-level interest in Bitcoin adoption.

• Jupiter ($JUP) Buyback Next Week to commence for Jupiter ($JUP), with 50% of protocol fees used to buy back and lock $JUP for 3 years.

• Doodles ($DOOD) Token on Solana ($SOL) announced, with 68% of Doodles ($DOOD) tokens allocated to the community, signaling further NFT-related token launches on Solana ($SOL).

• World Liberty Financial ($WLF) Buys More Crypto adding another 52 Wrapped Bitcoin ($WBTC) worth $5M and 2.53M $MOVE worth $1.41M, continuing its crypto accumulation strategy.

• $XION Eigenlayer Integration announced for $XION, enhancing interoperability.

• Story Network Mainnet Live as Story Protocol ($STORY) launches its public mainnet.

• Tether ($USDT) Bitcoin Sales Possible for Tether ($USDT) to comply with proposed US stablecoin regulations.

Key Takeaway

• Monitor Bitcoin's 111-D MA Level ($93,400). Execution: Prepare for potential volatility if Bitcoin ($BTC) tests or breaks this level.

• Assess Retail Sentiment Strength via Coinbase ($COIN) & Robinhood ($HOOD) data. Execution: Gauge retail participation and leverage, but remain cautious.

• Explore Highly Selective Altcoin Plays (Extreme Caution Required). Execution: For experienced, risk-tolerant traders only, consider small, highly speculative positions in:

  • Arc DAO ($AO) Dip Buy: This may be a long-term play but the idea is the tech and foundation is there, may need time before everything falls in place. Right now would be a good buy.

  • Thorchain ($RUNE) Speculative Position: $RUNE is either already at it’s bottom and will go up, or it’ll drop to the doom pit. The fundamental is there but a lot of investors lost trust. 50/50 play.

• Track ETF Developments (Dogecoin ($DOGE), XRP ($XRP)). Execution: Monitor for SEC updates, but ETF approvals are long-term catalysts, not immediate trades.

Our Stance

Market sentiment is cautiously neutral. Retail enthusiasm provides some support, but macro uncertainties dominate. We remain focused on Bitcoin's ($BTC) key levels and broader market leverage. Selective altcoin opportunities in Arc DAO ($AO) and Thorchain ($RUNE) are present, but demand extreme risk tolerance and diligent research. Dogecoin ($DOGE) and XRP ($XRP) ETF filings are positive for the long term, but immediate market impact is uncertain. Maintain a balanced approach, prioritizing risk management in this indecisive market.

Get More Crypto Insights Delivered Daily

📈Bullish📈

Coinbase Crushes Q4 Earnings Bitcoin Boom Ignites Crypto Exchange Giant

TL;DR:

• Coinbase reported a significant surge in Q4 2024 earnings, driven by the resurgent Bitcoin market and increased trading activity.

• Net revenue jumped to $905 million, exceeding analyst expectations and marking a substantial increase year-over-year.

• Transaction revenue was the primary driver, fueled by higher trading volumes in both retail and institutional segments.

• Coinbase's positive outlook for 2025 is based on continued crypto market momentum and strategic initiatives.

• Increased regulatory clarity and potential new crypto products are expected to further boost Coinbase's performance in the coming year.ration signals growing trend of bridging TradFi and DeFi through RWAs.

You can read more here…

📈Bullish📈

SEC Greenlights Grayscale XRP ETF Proposal Federal Review Begins

TL;DR:

• SEC acknowledged Grayscale's application to convert its XRP Trust to a spot XRP ETF, initiating a formal review process.

• XRP ETF approval chances estimated at 65% by analysts, signaling increased optimism for crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

• SEC review process involves two stages, with this acknowledgement marking the start of the initial 19b-4 filing review.

• XRP price could see significant rally upon ETF approval, potentially reaching $3.15 based on technical analysis.

• Broader implications for XRP and crypto market, with potential for increased institutional investment and regulatory clarity.

You can read more here…

📉Bearish📉

Pig Butchering Crypto Scams Surge 40% Losses Hit Billions

TL;DR:

• Pig butchering crypto scam revenue grew by 40% in 2024, reaching billions in losses according to Chainalysis.  

• Total scam revenue hit $9.9 billion in 2024, with pig butchering and high-yield investment scams dominating.  

• Pig butchering scams combine romance and investment fraud, building trust before luring victims into fake crypto investments.  

• Scammers are becoming more sophisticated, diversifying tactics and targeting victims globally.  

• FBI notified over 4,300 victims in the US alone, highlighting the widespread impact of these scams.  

You can read more here…