Today’s Narrative - 📉Bearish📉

Macros

• Crypto Volatility is currently experiencing low levels, with the market sitting in a tight range, which is often followed by a significant move, as per the Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that plot lines two standard deviations away from a simple moving average. They can be used to measure volatility and identify potential buy and sell signals.  

• Gold Reserves are causing concern as uncertainties have been raised, claiming there was no audit for a while now (50 years).

• Bitcoin adoption is increasing as US Senator Cynthia Lummis has called for the US Strategic Reserve to be upgraded to utilize Bitcoin. JP Morgan has acquired an additional $100M of MicroStrategy shares (MSTR) in Q4, bringing their total MSTR holdings to $300M. Cantor Fitzgerald has also acquired over $1B worth of MSTR shares in Q4.

• Chinese Stocks soared on Friday for their biggest gain in more than 4 months and are now approaching their highest prices in 3 years. You can track the performance of Chinese stocks through ETFs like iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI).

• META is the most extended above its upper Bollinger Band in history on the weekly chart. This suggests that META's price may be overextended and due for a pullback.

• Uranium has fallen to its lowest price since September 2023.

Cryptos

• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading like a stablecoin nowadays. Some analysts warn of a potential 'bearish phase' next, while others have spotted fresh Bitcoin accumulation.

• Solana ($SOL) is surrounded by negative sentiment after a series of rug pulls, including the recent $LIBRA incident. People are bridging out to other chains and there's a sense of "genuine wealth destruction". However, Solana remains a popular choice for on-chain use cases, including memes, AI agents, and more. 90% of blockchain daily transactions are now on Solana, up from 83% in January.

• BTC Dominance Weekly close confirms Bearish Divergence, a technical analysis pattern where the price of an asset makes a higher high, but a momentum indicator makes a lower high, suggesting a potential trend reversal, and Bearish engulfing candle after last week's largest wick since the 2020 dominance cycle top.

• $LIBRA is a meme coin on the Solana blockchain that crashed after insiders cashed out over $107 million. The token's value plummeted by over 90% within hours of its peak. This incident highlights the risks of investing in meme coins, especially those promoted by public figures.

• $OM continues to surprise everyone in terms of price action and the discrepancy between the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) and Total Value Locked (TVL).

• Dogecoin (DOGE) just saw a death cross between the MVRV Ratio and its 200-day MA, a potentially bearish signal where a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average.

• FTX will start paying creditors ~$7 billion in cash on Feb. 18.

• $MELANIA will have 40% of its circulating supply unlocked on Feb. 20. Token unlocks can increase selling pressure as holders gain the ability to sell their tokens.

• Hyperliquid will soon add support for ETH and SOL spot trading.

• Jupiter's JUP buybacks start tomorrow, with 50% of the protocol fees used for buybacks. Buybacks can reduce the circulating supply of a token, potentially increasing its value.

• MultiversX teased several major AI product releases for the next few weeks.

• TON will become the exclusive blockchain for Telegram's Mini Apps Ecosystem starting Feb. 21.

Key Takeaway

• Low Volatility: The crypto market is experiencing a period of low volatility, which often precedes a significant price movement. This is evident in Bitcoin's price action and the tight Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.  

• Bitcoin Adoption: Institutional interest in Bitcoin is growing, with major financial institutions increasing their holdings in MicroStrategy (MSTR).

• Solana's Challenges: Solana faces negative sentiment and uncertainty due to recent rug pulls and upcoming token unlocks. However, the platform's strong fundamentals and on-chain activity suggest potential for recovery.

• Meme Coin Risks: The $LIBRA rug pull serves as a reminder of the risks associated with investing in meme coins, especially those promoted by public figures.

Our Stance

This week's crypto market presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. The persistent low volatility, highlighted by Bitcoin's stablecoin-like behavior, suggests a potential for a significant price swing. This period of calm could be the quiet before the storm, and investors should be prepared for increased volatility in the near future.  

While Bitcoin appears to be gaining traction with institutional investors, the broader altcoin market is grappling with negative sentiment, particularly surrounding Solana. The recent $LIBRA rug pull serves as a stark reminder of the risks associated with meme coins and the importance of thorough due diligence. Investors should exercise caution and prioritize projects with strong fundamentals, transparent teams, and real-world utility.  

Despite the challenges, Solana's dominance in on-chain activity and its growing ecosystem cannot be ignored. The platform's ability to attract developers and users for various use cases, from NFTs to AI agents, suggests potential for long-term growth. However, investors should closely monitor the impact of upcoming token unlocks and the overall market sentiment before making any investment decisions.  

In this uncertain environment, diversification and risk management are paramount. Consider allocating your portfolio across different asset classes and prioritize projects with a proven track record and strong community engagement. Stay informed about market trends, news, and regulatory developments to navigate this evolving landscape effectively.

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📉Bearish📉

$LIBRA Rug Pull Millions Lost in Argentina Crypto Scam

TL;DR:

• $LIBRA Scam Argentina themed meme coin $LIBRA executed a rug pull on February 14 2025

• Pump and Collapse Token price surged following social media endorsement then plummeted over 90 percent within hours

• Investor Losses Mount Insiders are estimated to have profited by over $107 million leaving retail investors with substantial losses

• Meme Coin Risks Exposed The incident underscores the inherent risks of meme coin investments and market manipulation

• Don't FRET Guidance Emphasize due diligence skepticism towards hype portfolio diversification and cautious engagement with meme coin markets

You can read more here…

📉Bearish📉

$OM's $150 Million Binance Mystery Unfolds

TL;DR:

• $150M+ $OM Moved Dormant wallets transferred over $150 million in $OM tokens to Binance.

• Insider Activity Suspected Transaction scale points to potential involvement of Mantra-linked entities.

• UAE Connection Strong Mantra's UAE ties and DAMAC partnership are noteworthy in this context.

• Price Volatility Warning $OM market behavior suggests potential manipulation and short squeezes.

• Investor Action Stay informed, be cautious, manage risk, and do your own research.

You can read more here…